The one approach you get to 290 electoral votes, with Nevada and having misplaced Arizona, is that this:
Trump 2016 states, plus Nevada, minus Arizona, Maine rural district electoral vote, and Wisconsin: 290 electoral votes. That is the map he’s speaking about:
Initially, it’s curious how assured he’s pretending to be about Michigan and never Wisconsin, which has polled higher for Trump. That is the most recent polling mixture from The Economist for these two states:
Michigan: Biden +8.4
Wisconsin: Biden +8
Laborious to consider, however his schedule largely tracks, with three Michigan appearances to a single one in Wisconsin:
However discover, no Nevada. In truth, Nevada is already over.
Jon Ralston, the dean of the Nevada political press, does the math, and it’s just about over for Trump. So when Miller stated “we might choose off Nevada, a spot the place our modeling reveals that we’re going to win on Tuesday,” he’s mendacity, identical to the marketing campaign and everybody related to Trump at all times does.
Weirdly, with the map above Trump doesn’t want Nevada, so why is that this even being mentioned? As a result of they don’t suppose this would be the remaining map. They suppose this can be their election evening map.
MILLER: And the one remaining factor, George: In case you communicate with many sensible Democrats, they consider President Trump can be forward on election evening, most likely getting 280 electorals [sic], someplace in that vary. After which they’re going to attempt to steal it again after the election.
The “steal it again” factor is that silly concept that votes that aren’t counted on Tuesday evening are by some means illegitimate. That’s clearly been Donald Trump’s marketing campaign plan for months now. “Counting all ballots” should not be controversial, however that’s the trendy Republican Get together for you. Here’s a visualization about when votes will be counted:
Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania received’t have full vote counts on Tuesday, and rural and day-off votes are more likely to report first—each of which is able to favor Republicans.
Wisconsin isn’t included in Miller’s map as a result of Milwaukee is anticipated to report on election evening, negating the prospect of ending the evening with that incomplete GOP benefit.
And naturally, Miller doesn’t embrace Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina as a result of these are legitimately shut states, even when they “lean Biden” based on the polling. All three of these states (and Arizona, which is why Miller ceded it) may have outcomes Tuesday evening. If Biden wins any of them, Trump is toast and we will keep away from the chaos and drama over vote counts in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania that can inevitably pattern Democratic because the depend progresses.
The GOP’s solely probability at victory is chaos. In order at all times, one of the simplest ways to keep away from chaos is to win any of these Sunbelt states.
They’ve informed us their plan. Our job is to do all the pieces we will to thwart it whereas profitable all the pieces else downballot.